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Amid the immense confusion regarding the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its premier large-scale offensive on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The move to assault another state and capture its head of state – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is motivated by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and ongoing controversies make foreign conflicts more appealing.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may regret it if they stay silent now, considering the potential next target.